🔗 Share this article Daily Murders in Mexico Drop Over a Third During the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Government Data The average figure of everyday homicides per month in Mexico has fallen by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by new official statistics. But, security analysts have warned that homicide data may not indicate enhanced national safety. Significant Drop in Daily Numbers There was an average of nearly 55 killings a day in November as opposed to roughly 87 when the President took the presidential office in September. This information was shared by the chief of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday. “The outcome in homicides that we have seen over these months is extremely significant,” Sheinbaum stated, explaining that the previous month the lowest figure of murders were registered for any single November in the past decade. Historical Context and Government Strategy Intense drug cartel infighting, combined with the administration's highly militarised efforts to take on the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent times. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's official data office. That meant Mexico a homicide rate over four times greater than that of the United States. However, killings have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 last year. The President has credited her national security approach for an ostensibly sharper drop in killings in the current year. At a press conference in the summer, the head of state declared: “We have a plan, we have tracking of the plan, and there is detailed tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The approach works. And we have to persist at it each day.” The key components of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy involve: Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard. Improving intelligence and investigation efforts. Enhanced cooperation between various departments. Expert Skepticism and Data Limitations Nevertheless, public safety analysts urged caution that focusing solely on homicide numbers to assess the situation of pacification was flawed. This is especially true given the increase in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances. “This would be positive news if this was a decrease, but I think we must not just look at the murder data and conclude: ‘Alright, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's cartels. “I would be tentatively hopeful.” Per the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year compared with the same timeframe last year. However, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain states have surged by as much as 200%. “Statistics on homicides is no longer useful for assessing the reality of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the ability or the inclination to accurately recognize and classify corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violence through disappearances.” Vargas added that using month-to-month means of everyday homicides was additionally problematic because it could mask days when there were especially high levels of murders. “Relying on the per-day average makes surges of violent crime unseen,” he stated. Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success Where the government can point to the success of its security plan is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for major offenses, according to government data. More than 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of narcotics seized. “Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s very politically profitable,” commented Vargas. Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration Yet despite these measures, Mexico remains beset by severe violence, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-fueled violence. Recently there was a notable killing of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the past year. A short time later, thousands of young people took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the nation to show their anger at corruption and cartel violence. “The administration presents [data] in a way to build a picture of security. Politically it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” the analyst concluded.
The average figure of everyday homicides per month in Mexico has fallen by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by new official statistics. But, security analysts have warned that homicide data may not indicate enhanced national safety. Significant Drop in Daily Numbers There was an average of nearly 55 killings a day in November as opposed to roughly 87 when the President took the presidential office in September. This information was shared by the chief of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday. “The outcome in homicides that we have seen over these months is extremely significant,” Sheinbaum stated, explaining that the previous month the lowest figure of murders were registered for any single November in the past decade. Historical Context and Government Strategy Intense drug cartel infighting, combined with the administration's highly militarised efforts to take on the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent times. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's official data office. That meant Mexico a homicide rate over four times greater than that of the United States. However, killings have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 last year. The President has credited her national security approach for an ostensibly sharper drop in killings in the current year. At a press conference in the summer, the head of state declared: “We have a plan, we have tracking of the plan, and there is detailed tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The approach works. And we have to persist at it each day.” The key components of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy involve: Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard. Improving intelligence and investigation efforts. Enhanced cooperation between various departments. Expert Skepticism and Data Limitations Nevertheless, public safety analysts urged caution that focusing solely on homicide numbers to assess the situation of pacification was flawed. This is especially true given the increase in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances. “This would be positive news if this was a decrease, but I think we must not just look at the murder data and conclude: ‘Alright, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's cartels. “I would be tentatively hopeful.” Per the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year compared with the same timeframe last year. However, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain states have surged by as much as 200%. “Statistics on homicides is no longer useful for assessing the reality of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the ability or the inclination to accurately recognize and classify corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violence through disappearances.” Vargas added that using month-to-month means of everyday homicides was additionally problematic because it could mask days when there were especially high levels of murders. “Relying on the per-day average makes surges of violent crime unseen,” he stated. Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success Where the government can point to the success of its security plan is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for major offenses, according to government data. More than 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of narcotics seized. “Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s very politically profitable,” commented Vargas. Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration Yet despite these measures, Mexico remains beset by severe violence, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-fueled violence. Recently there was a notable killing of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the past year. A short time later, thousands of young people took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the nation to show their anger at corruption and cartel violence. “The administration presents [data] in a way to build a picture of security. Politically it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” the analyst concluded.