🔗 Share this article From Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Fall of Venezuela's Leader. A shock assault against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power announces its plan to rule indefinitely. That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The mission was executed with precision,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be fighting for this long.” Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict. Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated. A Network Unravels For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to forging a new axis able to challenge Washington. Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach. “For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.” Focus on the Main Front Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that front far outweighs the fate of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, determines results. “Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”
A shock assault against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power announces its plan to rule indefinitely. That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The mission was executed with precision,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be fighting for this long.” Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict. Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated. A Network Unravels For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to forging a new axis able to challenge Washington. Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach. “For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.” Focus on the Main Front Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that front far outweighs the fate of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, determines results. “Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”